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Strategic Shift in the Middle East
Our liberal friends started the week pushing the line that President Trump was committing genocide against Iran and also wallowing in AI images of Trump as a TACO.
And then there were leaks suggesting divisions in the Trump administration.
But now that there’s a ceasefire and crude oil futures are down I am trying to think through the noise about the real strategic situation.
First of all, I get a feeling that the mullah-cratic regime has been replaced with a simple military dictatorship of the IRGC. My judgement is that the “political formula” of the mullah-cratic regime, the justification for its rule, was that it was conducting a holy war against the satanic Israel and United States. The whole point of Iran being on a permanent war footing and running various anti-Israel proxies from Hamas to Hezbollah to Houthis was its war against the infidels. And indeed Israel seemed to be the enemy of all Muslim regimes in the Middle East.
But then began the Abraham Accords starting in the first Trump administration that involved economic ties between Israel and various Muslim states. It notably did not include Saudi Arabia. That was then. In May 2025 Trump went to the Middle East and brokered various deals with the Sunni Arab states, and made a notable speech to MBS in Saudi Arabia. My big takeaway was the video of MBS smiling at Trump as he watched the speech. Guess what: Elon Musk was in the frame with MBS. I’d say this is a strategic reset.
Then in the last six weeks, Iran has been targeting rockets on various Sunni Gulf states. The result has clearly been that everyone is now siding with the US against Iran. I’d say this is a strategic reset.
Suppose that the mullah-cratic regime has indeed been replaced by the IRGC dictatorship. Does that mean that the holy war continues? I’d say that the regime change means that the new regime needs a new “political formula.” It is no longer believable that the IRGC continues the holy war. It seems to me that a military dictatorship needs another narrative to justify its power. And I suggest that it must be pretty close to defending the Iranian people from “something” and making the Iranian people healthy, wealthy, and wise. You will recall that the Iranian people rioted in January about the mullah-cratic regime’s economic debacle: a miserable economy and runaway inflation.
Which is now, no doubt, ten times worse.
Meanwhile, my X feed has recently featured hot Iranian babes who turn out to be the relatives of top IRGC leaders. The hot Iranian babes were not wearing hijabs. Compare that with Iran regime propaganda photos of Iranian women in hijabs forming a protective ring around an Iranian electric plant. Other IRGC scions are professors at US universities. It seems to me that the IRGC is sending a message that they are not really down for the holy war but modern elitists making a place for themselves in the status hierarchy of the modern economy and culture.
Then there’s a piece in The Free Press about the seven strategic miscalculations of the Iran regime, from the Strait of Hormuz gambit to the hands-off attitude of China.
My understanding of politics is that a regime can crank up its people to fight the enemy — and especially the evil enemy — for quite a while. But for 50 years, non-stop, funneling the output of the nation into rockets and anti-Israel proxies instead of the prosperity of the people?
Just between you and me, I don’t think that politics works that way. You can crank up your people against the enemy for a season. But not half a century.
| Wed, 08 Apr 2026 23:29:49 GMT |
AI and Liberals
Here’s a piece at The Free Press saying that AI meaning the end of “learning to code.” Kids with software engineering degrees can’t find jobs.
Then there is Victor Davis Hanson saying that our liberal friends are desperately trying to appeal to the ordinary middle class, but it’s hard because they are “repulsed” by it.
May I say it again? We are entering the sixth technological revolution starting with the machine textile revolution two hundred years ago.
And the main thing to remember about each technological revolution is that to the people put out of work it looks like the end of the world. And for everybody else, they don’t have a clue what is coming. But they really like the cheap cotton textiles, the railways all over the land, the amazing results of steel in everything, the delight of seeing the USA in a Chevrolet, and the astonishing fact of the smartphone.
But then there is the Wish List.
Suppose that AI short circuits the NGO game that recycles money for Democrats. Suppose that AI removes the need for government to control the details of health care. Suppose that AI puts the whole regulatory state out of work. Suppose that AI puts all the lawyers out of work. Suppose that AI puts all the union school teachers out of work. Suppose that AI enables DataRepublican to identify every corrupt government payment in seconds.
OK, you can see that I am sneaking my own personal Wish List into my fearless forecast of AI.
Because what I would like to see is the replacement of the bureaucratic state with an AI state.
I would like to see the replacement of our current ruling class that believes that politics can save the world with a ruling class that believes that the less the government does the less it will Make Thing Worse.
But that is all in the future. All we know right now is that we are barreling into a new technological revolution and we don’t have a clue how it will all turn out.
But it would be really cool if AI pitched our liberal friends out of political power. And it would be even more cool if it could happen without any butcher’s bill. I’m talking to you, Dick the Butcher.
| Wed, 08 Apr 2026 01:06:43 GMT |
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Christopher Chantrill
He runs usgovernmentspending.com, the go-to resource for government finance data, and is a frequent contributor to the American Thinker. He lives in Seattle, Washington. Click for more.
“I love this guy.” — Steve Ballmer
A Commoner Manifesto
Commoners have nothing to lose but their shame
Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts — Richard Feynman
Anyone that calls another a racist is a hater.
The simplest way to understand human society is as Three Layers such as Nobles, Yeomen, and Serfs.
My take on Three Layers is my Three Peoples Theory of Creatives, Responsibles, and Subordinates.
I believe that we moderns live in Three Worlds: the War World of politics, the Market World of the economy, and the Life World of family and neighborhood.
And the trouble with politics is that it reduces human society to a war against the enemy, as determined by Nazi jurist Carl Schmitt.
The world that we all live in today is the one created by the German Turn in philosophy, psychology, science, and meaning.
But our modern elite, the educated elite, has taken, I believe, a Wrong Turn and has imposed a cultural Great Reaction on the world, a lurch back to the primitive. This manifests in the elite’s conceited Activism Culture and its patronage of Subordinate people as its Little Darlings.
The principal reason for the elite’s Wrong Turn has been that it does not understand and does not want to understand how the Three Peoples’ Religions are necessarily different.
The root of the educated elite’s Wrong Turn is its conceit that it knows what the world needs. I think there is a better way; I call it “A Good Life Better than the Left”.
ABC of Politics – Activism Culture – “Anatomy of Revolution” – Allyism – Critical Theory – Downstream-ism – Dutch Finance – German Turn – Good Life – Great Reaction – Little Darlings – Perfect Plan – Women in the Public Square – Ruling Class – Three Layers – Three Peoples – Three Peoples Religion – Tribalism – Two Cultures – Wrong Turn
Today’s topic: Analysis of Prophecy
